Direct impact possible as Arthur heads towards Nova Scotia

Published on July 2, 2014

Image of tropical storm Arthur's predicted track, as of July 2, provided by Environment Canada's Hurricane Centre. Arthur is expected to have an impact on weather in Nova Scotia this weekend. 

© Environment Canada's Hurricane Centre.

It will likely be a rainy weekend in Nova Scotia as the first named storm of the season heads towards this region, but it’s still too early to rule out a direct impact.

In a release July 2, the Canadian Hurricane Centre’s Chris Fogarty said staff is analyzing the development of tropical storm Arthur and latest computer model forecasts to gain an early indication of how the storm may affect weather in Atlantic Canada this weekend.

It’s expected that the storm, currently located east of Florida, will intensify into a hurricane as it moves slowly northeastward. Arthur is expected to travel parallel to the east coast of the United States, not far off land.

A low-pressure trough that is moving eastward from the Great Lakes is expected to guide Arthur towards Atlantic Canada. It’s that trough that will have the most impact on Arthur’s intensity and track, the Hurricane Centre says.

“Most computer models develop Arthur into a hurricane, so it appears likely that we will need to keep an eye on the storm this week,” Fogarty said in the release.

Scenarios range from a direct impact with wind and rain to a well-offshore track with perhaps just rain from the trough.

At this point, however, it’s likely that Nova Scotia will experience “a primarily rain event” over land this weekend.

The Hurricane Centre will issue a full forecast package this afternoon.