Liberal leadership III

I’ve never been keen on narrative sequels. And if anything the current Liberal Party Leadership contest is more like the third viewing of the Rocky Horror Picture Show than it is the sequels to Rocky.

Since the Paul Martin putsch, which, with stealth-full organizational force, upended the leadership of Jean Chrétien, Liberals seem more intent on shooting themselves in the foot than they are in replacing the party that champions guns. And Martin’s unseating of the politically smart “Man from Shawinigan” has put in line a series of events that may require one more leadership mistake, before the party re-discovers its grove.

The context is one that should be more encouraging for Liberals than it is. Despite the new found apparent maturity of the Conservative caucus—apparent maturity only because they seem more prone to regression than they should be—the membership of the Conservative Party insists on keeping alive its right-wing symbolic order. Despite a plea from its fearless leader to become more pragmatic, less ideological, the party’s recent convention insisted on declaring that Reform is far from dead in Canada’s wannabe natural governing party.

Sure, allowing the membership to act out helps Harper and his mentor Tom Flanagan do what they think they must, to move more to the middle of the ideological spectrum while giving the folks who donate the party the faint hope that “come the (common sense) revolution” their conception of the good will triumph. But doing so also preserves the Liberals’ easy angle on the Conservatives: that while the leader appears to have changed his tune, those who support him have not. And they just don’t speak for or to the majority of Canadians with any real understanding.

Moreover the horror of the current economic crisis in many Canadian lives and pension plans should make Conservatives seem to be the problem, not the solution, the next federal election. Given that Canada’s over-reaching

federal New Democrats seem stuck behind a 20 per cent wall, and even if the Blocquistes protect their hold on Quebec, Liberals should be able to run a mascot to minority victory in 12 months.

Round 1: scoring the battle of those who would be king

Michael Ignatieff: Like Martin, the best organization entering the race: add 15 points. Failure to employ this advantage effectively last time: subtract three points. Enjoying the public support of the Stéphane Dion and Gerard Kennedy people: subtract two points. Being the first advocate of the logic of the Green Shift during the last leadership contest: subtract five points, despite the fact that he now apparently repudiates it. An apparent willingness to let his guys play tough: add four points; then subtract five.

Insistence that the Liberals are really a family who should chat behind closed doors: subtract five points, one for looking like Stephen Harper, three for revealing a remarkable lack of political instinct, one for using outdated and misleading metaphors. Appealing to Canadians on the centre right, the location arguably of the next electoral battle, who apparently prefer their leaders to be “manly”: add four points. Not being clear where on the ideological spectrum he really is: subtract one point. Asserting that his campaign will be much better this time because he has changed: subtract three points, it’s still way too much about him. Enjoying the support of Canada’s conservative press: subtract one point. (Total: minus two)

Bob Rae: Political smarts to burn: add five points. Reputation as the Premier of Ontario during a recession: subtract 20 points. Appeal to those who traditionally chose the Liberals because they perceived them to be the most inclusive: add five points. Ability to attract those who vote NDP when it appears that a Liberal majority is likely, but Liberal to prevent a Conservative majority: add five points. Has a charming sense of humour: add two points. Knows that the Liberals are a political party, not a family: add one point. (Total: minus two)

Dominic Leblanc: Being younger than Ignatieff, Rae and Obama: add five points. Not being Barak Obama: subtract 10 points. Fire in the belly: add two points. Not from Ontario or the West: subtract five points. Understanding rural Canada: add two points. (Total: minus six)