The Alberta election of '08

Taking the pilgrimage of all old Albertans back to the Rockies, I was no more than a day in the land of the wild rose (for a conference, let it be said) than Premier Ed Stelmach decided to test the electoral waters, in a provincial election to be held March 3.

Alberta elections are always interesting to those who study politics as they never seem to obey the laws of political science.

One of the more perplexing features of Alberta politics is though citizens boldly defend their liberty and hold themselves to be champions of individuality, they vote as buffalo over a jump, producing large majorities that hold on to power for epochs. The current Progressive Conservative government is currently enjoying its 37th year in office.

Such “one-party dominance” in Alberta was thought by C.B. Macpherson to be Rousseauvian; that properly constructed social contracts lead to unanimity of judgment, when the individuality of the citizen is secured and when bourgeois desire is moderated. Macpherson was no dummy, though the degree to which Alberta as become more bourgeois - when what you buy is more important that who you are or what you do - would probably surprise him.

I recall meeting him in the early 1970s when he arrived at a conference in Edmonton, to say, “this place stinks of money.” He didn’t exactly endear himself with all of the locals, even in Redmonton, as it was known by the more conservative elements of the province. (And lest it be thought otherwise, there are pockets of distinctively anti-bourgeois life and enterprise that thrive despite the broad generalizations of Alberta culture.)

In one-party dominance, according to Maurice Pinard, another giant of Canadian political science, changes to government are dramatic, when a new party typically arises to run the previous dominant party out of town, thereby securing itself for a new epoch.

Ripe for an overturn

The Alberta General Election of ‘08, thus, is a test of the nature of the polity in Alberta, not just a matter of selecting a new bunch for the provincial legislature. The Tories seem ripe for an historical overturn, reminiscent of Peter Lougheed’s drive for the throne in 1971. They have been in office a long time, have a less than charismatic leader and are facing some very serious challenges after years of booming growth.

There’s a sharp division deepening between rural and urban voters; 300,000 citizens have come to the province, many form Nova Scotia, since the last election. (Stelmach stems from a rural background.)

There are divisions between Calgary, where oil interests have been disturbed by Stelmach’s recent decision to increase significantly royalties on the oil patch. There may even be a disappointing latent ethnic underbelly, where Stelmach’s Ukrainian heritage may be an issue for some Albertans.

And there are lots of growth pains and scars. Despite a high degree of privatization in the health care sector, there’s the strong sense that care isn’t nearly good enough; the shocking cost of housing hasn’t abated; and those on limited incomes, not attached to oil wealth, seem cut from the team.

Stelmach has moved to address these concerns, but it’s not clear whether what he has to offer - for example, ending health care premiums, an idea he stole from the Liberals - will do the trick.

Ironically, the major impediment to epoch change here is that the leading contender for replacing the Conservatives, the Liberal Party, also is suffering a less than compelling leader. I listened to an interview of Mr. Taft on the Calgary CBC and it was soporific, bland, deadening intellectually, making even Rod Macdonald sound engaging.

So we will likely see an election in which turnout is the most important factor. If enough Conservatives stay home then Alberta may be on the way to minority government and 100 years of one-party dominance will have been broken, with increased Liberal support, a couple of NDP seats in Redmonton, a few seats on the right of the Conservatives from rural constituencies, and perhaps even a Green seat. Interesting how sitting on your butt can have such profound effect!

But my money’s still on the buffalo jump.