Will Harper spring forward or fall back?

Though I doubt that Stephen Harper is either a sun worshipper or much of a surfer, he is reported to be considering riding a mini wave of popularity to a spring election. Public opinion polls in late February had him nine points ahead of the Liberals, though within days Ipsos Reid had the spread at six points, with the Tories building in Ontario and Liberals building in Quebec.

Still the Tories smell something in the wind and it appears to them to be a majority victory. So for those of you who have had it up to here with elections, breathe deeply.

There are, of course, a number of ways that a spring election might be sprung. If the Tories aren’t sufficiently moderate and balanced in their budget, this might force all three opposition parties to pull the plug. A bit more likely is that the money in the budget will not be seen as sufficient for achieving strides toward Kyoto global warming goals, that Harper will be seen to be weak in his efforts to regulate the causes of global warming and, accordingly, the Opposition’s desire for green credentials might force them to defeat the government with a non-confidence motion on this issue.

Most likely is that Stephen will be so tempted by his party’s progress across the Manitoba/Ontario border that he will reharness the election horses, hoping his forward motion in Ontario will be read in Quebec as a sign that they better get on the wagon. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that the Governor General would test the House’s willingness to support a Liberal Minority before committing Canadians to another expensive election.

Mr. Harper has at least the following to consider. He’s progressing in Ontario. He will win more ridings in the 905 belt outside of Toronto and may even win a Toronto riding or two if the NDP, Liberal and Greens split the opposition vote there.

He could hold most of his current seats in Québec, though Québec politics are not his strength. And the Québec election might afford him opportunities that a Reformer hasn’t ever seen in that province. Presenting a budget that promises much to Quebec, but which would not become law until his government is re-elected, could be an effective weapon.

Moreover, while he isn’t showing much fear from the presence of Stéphane Dion across the floor of the House of Commons, Harper has been around enough to know how wily those Liberals can be and how far Dion moved in the Liberal leadership contest, when given time to do so. Testing him now may be Stephen’s best chance of finishing him off. And the Conservatives have more money and political organization on the ground than any of its competitors.

Still, there are some dark clouds as well. Canadians aren’t particularly keen on another election and if the Tories look like they’re moving to just a slightly enhanced minority, we might turn on the person who was so quick to spend our money to suit his ambition. Further, Stephen Harper is among the strongest Canadian proponent of American-styled, fixed four-year terms. Calling an election after 14 months will seem ingenuine, to say the least.

There’s a chance that more New Democrats will vote strategically for the Liberals this time in the hope of achieving a Liberal minority in which they hold the balance of power. There’s chance that the Greens, even after seeing their leader excel in a campaign, will cast their vote for Dion. There’s a chance also that the Bloc Quebecois will do better in the federal election than their friends in the PQ appear to be doing in the provincial one, partly to champion the political future of M. Duceppe, partly to counter-balance M. Charest’s leaning to the centre-right, partly to reclaim their pride as a nation. And there’s a chance that the electorate still is not willing to trust the Tories with a majority, even if they’re starting to warm to them.

Even though we political junkies love elections, my sense is that none of the opposition parties have a compelling interest in one this spring/summer and may bend over backwards to avoid it. Still, Stephen is a hungry man and he may find an apparent chance to feast too tempting to resist.