Harper, Rae, Ignatieff and Dion playing trump card

A week in politics can be a long time! Just when I thought I had the Federal Conservatives figured out, go figure, they take an action that makes them look like the government many Canadians thought they might be. By proposing symbolically to recognize Quebec as a nation, within a united Canada, Stephen Harper saved the prospects of his party in Quebec, pulled some of the rug from under Gilles Duceppe’s feet and may have saved Michael Ignatieff’s butt.

Whether or not Stephen has done the right thing for Canadians time will tell, as Quebec continues to call for recognition beyond mere words, and as other communities seek similar symbolic status.

But he has done well in putting out the fire that Michael Ignatieff started, without anyone’s fingers being burnt. As a card in the game that the next few months might be, it was a startling and gracious play, showing more finesse than I thought him capable.

The next few weeks should continue to be interesting. We will see, perhaps the last national leadership of its type, the extravaganza where the delegated cadre of a national party keeps up us hooked to our television sets more than it is sensible to be, to deliver the party’s new champion on their shoulders.

We will see the premiership of the Alberta Tories change hands, leaving King Ralph no longer an effective voice to undermine Reformers in Ottawa, just when they need his quiet acquiescence most.



Same-sex marriage

We will see Parliament vote again to reaffirm the right of gay couples to marry. As the gay marriage issue is the current litmus test of our commitment to the rights of the individual, the vote will again be regime defining, reinforcing the confidence Canadians have in the wisdom of the Charter and the Supreme Court, though not exactly what some of the Reformers in the Conservative Party were hoping for.

We will see, in London North Central, whether right tilted Dianne Haskett can steal a symbolic win from the Liberals, where the Green Elizabeth May first does electoral battle. We will see here whether May draws as heavily from the old Progressive Conservatives as from the NDP, leaving the riding in Liberal hands.

Against the backdrop of other polls indicating that the Liberals have caught up to the Tories nationally, Decima Research has recently revealed two things of equal interest. The first is that Bob Rae has greater potential to draw support from Canadians than his rivals, that such support is nationally based, and that he will appeal to New Democrats anxious to resist the re-election of Stephen Harper. This poll will not be lost on Liberals hungry for re-election, especially as they remember that Pierre Elliot Trudeau was a New Democrat before he “saw the light.�

Another 20 years of Liberal rule, however, is far from certain -- regardless of the champion chosen. Decima also revealed that, against Stephen Harper, none of the top four Liberals fared all that well. While some of this may be name recognition and a preference for the guy in office, this mismatch between how Canadians think of the Conservatives generally and how they think of Harper as prime minister remains a Tory trump card.



Not the only trump card

Steve is not the only card that the Conservatives have to play. In their fiscal update of Feb. 23, they will have signaled a likely direction on taxing and spending powers, and fiscal re-distribution. While analysis of this must wait, the Tories have here a high trump card in their hand, if they see it and know how and when to play it, and, of course, if they are believed by Canadians, after their broken promise on the taxing of income trusts.

It wouldn’t be a game, however, if others didn’t have some cards of their own.

Stephane Dion will bring more support to the convention than folks thought, and, if he places above Gerard Kennedy may happily surprise us all.

Michael Ignatieff could deliver a scintillating convention speech.

Bob Rae, with baggage from his term as Ontario premier in the 1990s, might remind us that while he was seeking to govern Ontario through one of its most difficult times since the recessions of the 1950s, Stephen was working for the National Citizens Coalition, that right wing lobbying body that makes George W. Bush seem moderate, and Iggy was looking for a country in which he felt comfortable.