Women have key role in federal vote

Wow, what a difference a couple of weeks can make in politics! Two weeks ago Barak Obama seemed certain to cruise to a comfortable victory in the United Estates of America, and the Liberals seemed ready to form a minority government in Canada.

As I write this Thursday morning, Obama appears insistent on running against the Vice Presidential candidate of the Republicans and my friend Stephen Harper seems closer to a majority than he ever allowed himself to dream possible.

Senator McCain has declared himself Agent Change, even as he carries years of Republican baggage on his back, and he has managed to make his party appear progressive on the interests of women.

Jack Layton has persuaded himself he is inches from the residence of the Leader of the Opposition, Gilles Duceppe is in panic mode and Elizabeth May has frustrated the desires of Harper and Layton to exclude her from the show.

Stéphane continues to appear with Iggy droppings on his shoulder and Steve is just a regular family guy in a Perry Como sweater, with no hidden agenda to speak of.

Polls all over the place

The polls are all over the place and the rush to nomination is increasingly looking like someone has yelled “fire!” This could be fun, if it weren’t so damned important.

While we wait for the daily tracking polls Nanos is conducting for CPAC, we might consider some of those currently on offer. A large poll by Ipsos Reid, conducted just as the election was called, had a minority Conservative the most likely outcome. More recent polls by this firm, with smaller sample sizes, have the Conservatives leaning to a majority, with a fast declining Liberal vote.

Some of the media believe this election turns on a small number of ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec, and have focused their polling - too much in my view - on these. With party preference so volatile, the fact a number of ridings were close last time doesn’t necessarily mean they will turn the tide this time.

The most interesting poll finding in the recent mélange is the one that found fully one-third of Canadians fully prepared to change their votes to affect the outcome they preferred. There is a lot yet to do for all parties in this race.



Harper working from a clever playbook

As to early campaigning, Harper is running well, working from a clever playbook, downplaying his prospects of a majority for fear of triggering fear in the rest of us. Layton is running a very strong campaign in my judgment, despite looking Harper-like in seeking to exclude May from the debates.

Alas, for those contemplating voting New Democrat, Jack’s strong campaigning increases the likelihood of a Harper majority, just as his campaigning last time gave us the Harper minority.

Duceppe is really running poorly, seemingly with little to say about why it is important to the Quebecois to have the Bloc in Ottawa.

The Liberals have made numerous mistakes, not the least of which is accepting the Conservative’s pitch to make it about leadership. The Liberals need, if they are not to fall further than they quietly fear, to make it a Team Liberal campaign. Dion needs to hand off the ball a lot more than he seems willing to do, and it may be too late.

The outcome, of course, is tricky to predict as it all turns on how the vote splits in a whole lot of ridings. However, this is likely the best occasion for Canadian women to make a profound impact upon our nation since they entrenched their rights in the Charter. How women decide to vote will make more difference Oct. 14 than any other group in Canadian society.

Women, most of us know, are very good at reading the character of men. What they end up thinking about Stephen Harper may well determine the outcome of the next election. Women will not be responsible if things go poorly, as we all have an important role to play, but they have another real opportunity to make a difference in Canadian politics.