The Vice Presidential sweepstakes!

One of the most difficult tasks facing both John McCain and Barack Obama is the selection of a ‘running mate’ who, if successful, would become the Vice President of the United States.

It is one of the more interesting aspects of American politics that this choice resides in the end upon the Presidential candidate alone. Yet, if we look at history, it is surprising how many Vice Presidents succeed to the presidency upon the death of the President. Examples include: Lyndon Johnson, Harry Truman, Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge and Andrew Johnson.

Until 1967 and the adoption of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, when a Vice President succeeded to the Presidency upon the death of the incumbent, the Office of Vice President remained vacant until the next election. The order of succession then became the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the longest serving Senator (today it is Senator Byrd, who is 90-plus), and then the Secretary of State. This is still the order of succession.

In 1967, the U.S. adopted the 25th amendment as President Lyndon Johnson had a history of heart attacks. Plus, the Speaker of the House and the ‘eldest’ Senator where both in their eighties. Now when a vacancy occurs, the President may nominate a new Vice President who then requires the approval of a majority in both Houses of Congress. Gerald Ford and later Nelson Rockefeller both became Vice President thanks to the 25th Amendment. Gerald Ford to-date is the only unelected President of the United States. Compare this process of ‘checks and balances’ with the fact that Obama and McCain can choose whoever they so desire without any formal constitutional process being involved. True, they do require the consent of their parties’ Convention, but that is a foregone conclusion.

There has been one woman nominated, Geraldine Ferraro, who, in 1984 was nominated to be Vice President, but the Democrats’ ticket of Mondale and Ferraro lost to Regan–Bush.

Charles Curtis, Vice President for Herbert Hoover (1929-1933), was a Kaw Indian and thus the first Vice President to break the so-called ‘colour bar’.

Job is now far more complex

John Nance Garner, Vice President from 1933 to 1941, once remarked that ‘the Vice Presidency was not worth a bowl of warm spit.’ Well, Dick Cheney has certainly changed all that and has become perhaps the most powerful Vice President in U.S. history.

The Vice President may have only one Constitutional role, to Chair the Senate, but as many recent Vice Presidents have illustrated, the job is now far more complex and important not only as a member of the Administration, but also as a Party apparatchik and an Ambassador for the President.

In recent years, those Vice Presidents who served in Congress have proven to be valuable liaison agents between the President and the Congress. This point may not be as important in the next presidency as McCain and Obama, unlike “W” Bush, Clinton, Reagan, and Carter, who came to Office from Governorships rather than Congress.

Who do they choose and what do they look for? Geography is important, as is age, particularly for McCain. Religion can also be an issue; for instance, would the fact that Romney is a Mormon be a detriment to his candency even though he has many strong attributes that would make him an asset to the Administration?

Governor Richardson of New Mexico is a strong possibility except for the fact that his state is next door to McCain’s. Then there’s Condoleezza Rice, who has been mentioned several times as a possible Republican Vice President, or would her name remind too many voters of the despised Bush presidency, which is like a rubber tire around the neck of John McCain?

Obama has a major problem

Obama has a major problem named Hillary. If he selects her and they lose the election, would it be because of Hillary? If he does not select her and he loses, would it be because of Hillary?

Obama has to come to terms with the Hillary candidacy and do it quickly. The longer her name remains in contention is like a boil on Obama’s campaign!

Geography is important for the Democrats. One must remember that the last ‘Northerner’ elected President was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Since that time, successful Presidential candidates have come from California, Texas, Arkansas and Georgia. Candidates from Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Michigan have lost.

This year, because of Obama, the situation may be different, but still the Democrats must keep recent results in mind when they select their Vice Presidential Candidate. John Edwards might fit the bill except he was on the losing side four years ago.

Religion may also be an issue for both candidates even if Obama has rejected Pastor Wright. Many right wing evangelical Republicans, who elected George W. Bush in 2004, are not as hip on McCain as they were on Bush. McCain needs a running mate who can keep these voters on side and get them out to vote on Election Day.

Similarly, Obama must keep Hillary Clinton’s women voters within the tent. If Hillary is not on the ‘ticket’, is there someone else who can?

Could Senator Feinstein of California, for example, be a strong Vice Presidential candidate for the Democrats? There are a number of women Democratic Governors including Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona, McCain’s home state, and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, both of whom might be satisfactory to the Clinton supporters.

Then there is the issue of who goes first, for example; whomever Obama selects could have a major impact on McCain’s choice.

There are many factors to be tossed into the vice presidential cauldron before we know the results and in spite of the pressure of the media upon the candidates to name names, it may well be August before we know who the candidates will be.