Dion: done, nearly done or done in?

While rumours of his political demise may be premature, Stephane Dion is up to his proverbial in toxic sludge, only some of it being the ad pollution sent his way by opponents.

A cagey strategy in contemporary electoral competition is to ensure that others have underrated your “guy” to such an extent that any improvement in his/her ratings is seen as movement, if not quite a bandwagon. Dion has perfected this strategy; indeed, so perfect is it that it might shatter before it’s ever put to the test.

His loyalty to a leadership staffer has proved to be a major drag on his attempt to find the traditional Liberal ground in Québec, and it has revealed more about him and seemingly about the staffer in question than Dion wanted us to see.

A leader is in trouble when s/he becomes the subject of humour not of his or her authorship. Smart politicians know how to feed the press with self-effacing humour, when the prospect of being the butt of other’s jokes is imminent. But once the press has decided that you’re the laugh of the season — or laughing Stock if you’re thinking of Stockwell Day — look out!

The photos of Dion in the past weeks have made Alfred E. Newman seem politically competitive. There were lots of other photos that journalists and their editors could have used. And pictures, alas, matter — a lot!

Dion is losing competitive Quebec candidates, friendly columnists and photographers faster than his confidence; this too is hurting him more than a bandage or two will help heal.

While some of those bailing out are Iggy’s guys, others run only to win. (If elected, I will stand). In a party for whom winning is everything, you need to appear on the way to a victory if you want folks to carry the drum.

Part of the problem is that history is moving faster than Dion wants, leaving him insufficient time to fulfill his promise to attract more women as candidates in winnable ridings. Because he values being a man of his word, he will be slow to jettison this plank in his leadership platform, even if this leaves him and the party election-unready.

Iggy and Bob Rae have probably forgotten what they said they would do if elected leader. Indeed, Iggy might well now make a grand point of saying he’s no longer committed to what he then said he was — which was a repudiation of what he had previously said he was committed to — and that he had now seen yet another light and will write another book about it.

Down, but not out

Dion is in trouble. Accordingly, he’s in the process of bringing in some of the big guns from the Chrétien Québec crew — ones not associated with the golf balls — as well as a few with Iggy ties. And he may yet have to promise to step aside if he doesn’t fare significantly better in the next 12 months, to keep his lean and hungry friends at a safe distance.

He might use the current disarray to find a way to avoid voting against the government this fall unless the Prime Minister makes the mistake of saying in the Speech from the Throne what he would actually do if he had a majority government.

Some in the Quebec wing of the party wish he would resign, giving them time to select a new leader before going to the polls. But to do so now would leave a scene that would make Battleship Galactica seem tame.

As a PMABHEIer (Pretty Much Anybody But Harper, Except Ignatief), I have thought well of Dion and I still wish him well. He may yet surprise us by being, despite himself, the guy who pulls his party together.

And notwithstanding the practice of Ontarians finding favour with the federal party that is doing well in Québec, Dion’s Trudeauesque resistance to Quebec’s sovereigntist demands may yet be useful to his party there and elsewhere. Even if he has recently turned to the dwindling Quebec federalist elite to save his hide.