Land, food, resources real roots of future war

By Kirk Starratt

kstarratt@kentvilleadvertiser.ca

NovaNewsNow.com

Nothing frightens him like the prospect of large-scale climate change leading to a global food shortage and war.

Acclaimed journalist, columnist, broadcaster, author and lecturer on world events Gwynne Dyer spoke to Grade 11 and 12 students at Northeast Kings Education Centre in Canning Sept. 27.

Dyer says the real problem with climate change is food supply: serious changes will affect rainfall patterns over areas where most of the world’s food is grown - desserts are growing, causing droughts in prime growing areas.

If rain doesn’t fall, food doesn’t grow, and we already consume almost everything produced. Some countries will have food and some won’t.

“We’re not only talking global famine - we’re talking global war,” Dyer said, pointing out we need to make a 60 to 80 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) in 20 years to avoid climate catastrophe. Dyer said international deals are needed: we have to help some countries move away from cheap, dirty energy sources - and we might have to bribe them to do it, even in Canada. Alberta will have to give up on the tar sands, the source of its wealth.

Kings County Councillor Jim Taylor, in attendance, asked Dyer what advice he has regarding the protection of agricultural land.

Such land is “indispensable and will be in huge demand internationall,” Dyer said. A law should have been passed yesterday protecting farm land from development. Growing food will be the most important thing people do.

In regard to the international deals needed to curb GGEs, Dyer said they wouldn’t happen if a cold war between the United States and China escalates. America is paranoid China is catching up to them economically and this, in turn, is making China paranoid.

Some expect China to catch up to the U.S. economically by 2040; some expect India to catch up by 2050. Dyer said U.S. President George Bush is establishing military alliances with countries around China’s perimeter in an effort to contain it. America made a huge effort to get India to sign a 10-year military co-operative agreement two years ago. In return the U.S. will sell nuclear technology to India.

Dyer said he doesn’t think America will invade China but if the Chinese overreact, we’re heading for a cold war. If the public in China were aware, there would be huge pressure placed on their government to do something about it.

“How long can they go on ignoring it?” Dyer said. “No one knows.”

NKEC student council co-president Leah Beveridge said the presentation made her realize you don’t always have a great handle on what is happening on the world stage, even when you think you do.

“The media tells you one thing, but the truth can be so different,” she said.

Beveridge said climate change is scary, and it’s important to find ways to help and convince others to help.

Student council co-president Ricky Lincoln said he found Dyer’s presentation enjoyable but shocking. He said we have to take the steps necessary to reduce energy consumption, and there are small things everyone - including students - can do.

Middle Eastern “meddling” will end eventually

What will happen when America leaves the Middle East doesn’t worry Gwynne Dyer.

He said Islamists haven’t been able to win a war in 30 years of trying. Osama Bin Laden had the idea, if you attack America, it will anger them and they will retaliate. If Americans kill lots of Muslims, the masses would turn against America, coming to Islamists for help. This thinking is standard in the “terrorist manual,” Dyer said, but Arabs are not fools: most don’t buy into it.

People have been encouraged to believe since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America the world will be turned upside down by terrorism. Dyer said we should have seen the attacks coming: Islamists see a prolonged western presence in Arab countries as meddling.

“Bush should have told everyone the military phase of the war on terror was over by the end of 2001,” Dyer said. “If he had, this would have gone away by now.”

However, in early 2002, Bush said he had discovered the “axis of evil” and, by the end of his speech, made it clear he was going to invade Iraq.

Although it’s hard to say why, Dyer said he believes it wasn’t just about oil. There were two motives not mentioned to the U.S. public: the Republicans wanted to make America look tough again after eight years under President Bill Clinton, and there are many countries around the Persian Gulf with oil. Dyer said America wants to establish bases in the region to control oil supply to China.

America rolled into Iraq with a large army and occupied the country. Before long, there were guerilla wars and images of death shown throughout the Arab world - just what Bin Laden hoped to get out of Afghanistan.

Dyer said, when Bush leaves office, America is leaving Iraq; it’s quite likely the war in Afghanistan will end as well.

“He (Bush) will never be able to admit to himself or the public that he made a mistake,” Dyer said.

Even if Islamists were in power in Arab countries, they probably wouldn’t attack western countries because they would have already gotten what they want: power. They would still have to sell oil if they hoped for any sort of economic prosperity.

“Will they follow us home?

“No, they don’t have the price of the airline ticket,” Dyer said. “I don’t worry about this stuff.”