It's Just Politics

Agar Adamson



Once again Canada is at a crossroads as we watch the Quebec election campaign. Now, if you believe the polls, Jean Charest and the Liberals should be reelected. But, as we all know, the party in the lead when the race commences is not always the party in the winner’s circle when the race ends.

Charest, who has long been seen in the rest of Canada as the preferred choice as premier of Quebec, is not as popular within Quebec as he is in other parts of the country.

One might say that he has been a bit of a disappointment as premier. He tried but failed to curtail the powers of the public service inions, a reform which in the minds of many was long over due. This failure cost him support on both sides of the issue.

The unions were angry that he even tried to bring about change following their somewhat cozy relationship with the Parti Quebecois (PQ), while the business sector was angry that he had not succeeded. You may remember that it was not so many months ago that Charest’s popularity was below 33 per cent in some polls.

There have been other issues, including a proposed land swap in a provincial park in the Eastern Townships.

Charest was the leader of the old Progressive Conservative party; he had previously run for the leadership, but lost to Kim Campbell. He was a member of Brian Mulroney’s cabinet, and was one of two Conservatives to survive the election of 1993.

Charest is a conservative and, in spite of the fact that he now leads the Quebec Liberal Party, he is still philosophically a conservative. His relationship with both the Chrétien and Martin Liberal governments was polite, but not cozy. He would appear to have a much better relationship with Stephen Harper than he had with either Liberal leader.

We have already noted Harper turning up in Quebec with gifts for Charest and we all expect that there will be further Federal largess when the Harperites bring down the budget.

In return, Harper expects Charest to assist the Conservatives in the next federal election, and no doubt he will.

One of the greatest assets any politician can have is luck and Charest has had it in spades. It was during the last Quebec election in 2003 that Jean Chrétien turned down George W. Bush’s invitation to join him in Iraq. If Chrétien had accepted that invitation the Liberals would have lost the Quebec election. Now the Liberals face a weak PQ leader in Andre Boisclair and a rather dispirited PQ.

You may remember Chrétien calling an election before Stockwell Day got his feet on the ground; well, Jean Charest is doing the same thing.

There is one other party in this contest that could upset Charest’s victory march: the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ). The ADQ is a nationalist party though not a separatist or independence party. It is a conservative party, indeed perhaps more conservative than the Liberals.

There already have been signs of the Liberals losing support to the ADQ. If this erosion should continue, Charest might just find himself heading a minority government. One should remember that in spite of his age M.Dumont is the senior party leader in Quebec in years of service and he is a very able campaigner. His ‘nationalism’ plus his conservative outlook may be popular to many Québécois outside of the island of Montreal. His performance during election campaigns is rather weak and if this continues he may not be a threat to the Liberals.

Of course, as campaigns go, third parties tend to get squeezed out by the two larger parties. Those who lean toward separation may just jump back to the PQ if their poll numbers look good. Similarly, those who have left the Liberals for the ADQ may just be persuaded to go back home if the polls show that the Liberals are in trouble. Supporters of the NDP nationally and last spring the Nova Scotia Liberals were victims of this squeeze play. But, as things stand at the moment, it would be a mistake to under-estimate the support for the ADQ.

Charest is banking on history being on his side. For sometime now every Quebec government has been elected for two terms, but has been tossed out of office when it tried for a third term.

At dissolution there were 72 Liberals, 45 PQ, five ADQ, one independent and two vacancies. The Liberal lead may be too large for the PQ to make up unless there is a tsunami of support for the PQ, which seems unlikely at the moment.

To use an old political cliché, it is Charest’s and the Liberal’s to lose and you can bet that Harper will do everything he can to secure Charest’s victory for his only road to a majority government lies through Quebec.