Quebec's politics: Late winter before the storm

While a long weekend in la Belle Province is not sufficient for a thorough reading of where she is headed in the provincial election of March 26, it may be enough for a snapshot or two, some anecdotal and polling evidence, and some early speculation.

Anglo Quebecers and les Québécois are in a similar state. They seem tired of high drama politics, are weary of “the question,” and are tired of the championing of leadership, just as they are not enamored with the leaders who are presenting themselves for consideration. They are protective of the social, cultural, and educational policies that they have worked hard to secure, are anxious about the impact of global warming, have lost much of their desire to be closer to the Americans, and have a general and deepening disquiet about where the world is headed in Iraq and Afghanistan. They believe that they are not getting a fair deal from Ottawa, that much more in the way of transfers to the province are necessary if it is to be able to continue to provide adequate health care and post secondary integrities, and begin the work of refurbishing infrastructure -- especially of roads).

They are proud of what they have achieved, yet worried about the prospects for subsequent generations.



Less enthusiasm and animus

That is, they are very much like the rest of Canadians. It is perhaps not surprising then, that the citizens of Québec are approaching the upcoming provincial election with less of the enthusiasm and animus than the political class attempting to instill in them.

Recent polls indicate that the most likely outcome is a minority government. The Liberals lead in these polls, but not by a large margin, with the Action démocratique du Québec (the ADQ) building its support for a sharp right turn for the province. Support for the Bloc Québécois, and its commitment to a third referendum, is in decline.

The vote in Québec, however, is regionalized with Liberal support concentrated in Montreal. This has meant that the Parti Québécois can win government with a smaller percentage of the vote than can the Liberals. But this too may not be predictive this time, as the ADQ seeks support of those unhappy with the PQ, but unwilling to vote for Mr. Charest. If they are successful, this could work to split the vote, helping the Liberals win a number of three-way ridings outside of their traditional base.

The Québec Liberal Party is lead by “the man who saved Canada” in the last referendum, the Progressive Conservative Jean Charest, and it appears that he is using his new found friendship with Stephen Harper to strengthen their shared sense of national unity. Support for Charest as leader is running well below the support the Liberal Party, the opposite of the predicament in which Stephen Harper finds himself.



Learned quickly

Although Charest claimed office last time on a provocative neo-conservative agenda of dismantling the welfare state, he learned quickly that this was not the way to advance his or his party’s future as a majority government.

Harper is working at tempering his ideological mission, though his recent personal attacks shows he has yet a way to go.

And though he can be pompous, Charest has managed to find a bit of his old sense of humour. Recently, when his chief rival PQ leader Andre Boisclair stated that he was waiting the election call with a knife in his mouth, the premier responded drolly that he hopped he wouldn’t hurt himself. Charest appears to have relaxed a bit and this is good optics in the politics of the day.

Both Charest and Harper hope that the current decline in the popularity of sovereigntists’ parties—brought on by disappointment with the leadership of Boisclair—will provide the best opportunity in many years for significant growth in their foundation as parties, and their shared conception of de-centralized federalism. However, traditional PQ and BQ supporters may find another home, or simply stay at home this time. Indeed a loss for the PQ would likely strengthen the appeal of the BQ in any ensuing federal election. But in the Machiavellian world in which some of their advisers believe they find themselves, one must boldly grasp the opportunities that history offers.