A puzzle in the polls

Let’s turn today to the most recent results from the SES Research National Survey. SES came closest to predicting the outcome of the past two federal general elections, noting that the outcome of the last vote would be 36.1% Conservative; 30.4% Liberal; 17.4% NDP; 10.6% Bloc; and 5.6% Green. The actual vote was 36.3% Conservative; 30.2% Liberal; 17.5% NDP; 10.5% Bloc; and 5.5% Green).

SES is a good polling crew, so it’s sensible to spend a few minutes reading their Feb.2-8 national survey, during the week of the Conservative attack ads aimed at M. Dion.

If an election were to have been run then, it would have produced a national result of 33% Conservative; 33% Liberal; 17% NDP; 10% Bloc; and 7% Green.

Moreover, we seem pretty much stuck here: the Liberals up a point from November, the Conservatives down a point, the NDP up one, the Bloc down three and the Greens up two. This is perhaps no surprise, as another SES poll found that in Ontario in mid-January, 53% prefer minority government, only 37% prefer majority government, with young Canadians keenest on minority outcomes.

SES’s regional numbers are more interesting, though less reliable. The Bloc is down in Quebec with the Conservatives picking up much of this support. The Liberals are down in Ontario, with much of this support going to the NDP and Greens. The Conservatives are stuck in Ontario at 36% while the Liberals are building in the West and in Atlantic Canada. Even though the national numbers are stationary, there is surprising movement apparent regionally. (These numbers reflect only “committed voters” so the movement at the regional level is especially interesting.)

Nik Nannos of SES has suggested that NDP and Green gains from the Liberals were due to the Tory negative ads aimed at Stéphane Dion; they were working, he believes, but driving folks not to the Tories, but to the other two parties. I would add that the shift may also be due to the discomfort many have with Michael Ignatieff’s high profile in the Liberal Party. It may yet be the irony of the next election that the NDP holds its vote by virtue of Dion’s “elephant in the room.”

It’s hard to say whether these regional numbers will hold, but in the West Harper’s broken promise on income trusts in the resource sector and his attack on the Wheat Board may be beyond repair before the next election.

The shift from the Bloc to the Conservatives in Quebec will hold only if the Conservatives readjust transfers to the provinces in a way that favours Quebec’s interests. And if the timing of the election is right.

They took a step in this direction last week by funneling $328 million to Quebec, subject to the next Federal budget passing. Although apparently a one-time grant, these funds are to enable the Quebec government to meet its commitment to Kyoto.

This announcement was just weeks before an anticipated provincial election, one that Conservatives hope will further weaken the Federal Separatists (to use an oxymoron) and that this vote will move to them, not the Liberals. The most recent ad attacks en français against Dion is a dangerous attempt to serve this strategy.

Ontario movement to the Conservatives over the current 36% cap seems unlikely unless they provide massively for middle class taxpayers and address the auto sector with the promise of considerable help. And Atlantic Canadians have apparently made our bed with Liberals and the NDP; it would take something quite remarkable to make us love the guy who called us a lazy lot.

This makes a last set of numbers from SES very puzzling indeed. SES found that Mr. Harper was 15-20% ahead of M. Dion in trustworthiness, competence and vision for Canada. What could this praise of Mr. Harper’s leadership, but resistance proportionately to vote for him possibly mean?

Perhaps even with a strong leader Canadians aren’t prepared to support a Conservative majority government? Perhaps we’re just not into “strong leadership” these days? Perhaps we’re just confused?

Or perhaps Mr. Harper has room yet to turn leadership into the central issue of the next campaign and ride it home to victory? Regardless, it has to be making M. Dion and Mr. Layton just a tad nervous, and making other Liberals look back longingly to Bob Rae.

For those tracking this column, there it is, folks; I’ve now said something good about the Federal Conservatives. But while my recent positive readings of Mr. Dion may seem to be in jeopardy, with some crow possibly on the menu, I’ll not get the salt out just yet.