More weeks of political winter to come?

Well, folks, the Premier has come out into the light of Province House and, seeing his shadow, has decided to go back to ground. Not that I blame him.

The week that was to show his desire for an improved quality of electoral democracy produced neither the story nor the glory he hoped it might for him. Instead, he was taken over by things that go bump in the night.

The problem for the provincial Tories is obvious. Their guy isn’t doing so well, partly because he wasn’t seasoned enough, partly for personal reasons, partly because he chose to put back into Cabinet a good old boy who was already down for the count, and partly because some of his closest, trusted advisors had watched too many episodes of West Wing, obviously not quite getting the full force of the narrative.

This should make the next Tory convention an interesting one. The rank and file is caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they dump on their guy, they’re just doing themselves more damage; if they don’t, they will run the next election with him as the issue. And there’s little chance that anything, short of a very horrible convention experience, will be enough to get the Premier to step down soon.

The dilemma facing the Liberals isn’t much better. The way back to power is obvious: they need to recruit a first–rate leader and some first-rate candidates to run.

But they won’t be able to do so until it looks like they’re able to wrest power from the Tories, and before they can do that…well, you get the idea.

This Catch 22 isn’t new. Indeed, it’s one that every party on the outs encounters, though it has been made more complicated by the fact that we’ve moved to a full blown three party system.

Looking back to the Savage years, while there is a fair bit to criticize the party was able to recruit some bright, energetic candidates, a generation of folks motivated by the desire to get something done to better their province. And while my crystal ball is admittedly a bit clouded, I don’t see a throng of such people pressing to give up their private lives in order to run in a high risk enterprise.

The folks who have this sort of vision and energy are primarily found in the New Democratic Party’s caucus. To make matters worse for the Liberals, until they finally give up their special fund, they will be too busy shooting themselves in the foot to run a convincing campaign. Why not just give it to charity and be free, folks?



The NDP and Greens

The provincial New Democrats aren’t without their share of dilemmatic space. They are, for the most part, a Greater Halifax party. Finding language that will convince other regions of the province that electing a New Democrat will see their regional issues come first is a hard sell, especially if the party wishes to protect its downtown base.

The issue that may well be the NDP’s Achilles’ heel is support of the Commonwealth Games bid. While a number of people in Halifax are worried about how the costs of such an event would push other sorts of needed spending off the agenda, it’s Halifax that will house the buildings and business spin-offs that the Games would produce, even if the Games lose money.

To the extent that taxpayers in the rest of Nova Scotia pay for the Games, via federal and provincial grants, this will constitute a net transfer from the regions to Halifax. Were an election to be called in the next six months, the NDP would be pressed to say whether they’re committed to significant public spending for the event. If they say yes, folks in the regions, except for those who yearn for a CFL team in Nova Scotia, will not be amused. If they say no, their Haligonian hold may weaken.

Finally the Greens. Their dilemma is ongoing. To the degree that they win votes without winning seats, they’re giving either the Tories or the Liberals a push sufficient to win close contests. Doing so may prevent an NDP win; a win, that is, for the party that has the best environmentalist credentials of the three major contenders.

So if you’re looking for an election to clear the air, you may have some time to wait. Unless the Premier fails to deliver a budget in which all parties can see a bit of themselves, we’re likely to have a federal election before the next provincial one.