Party system still in state of flux

Agar Adamson



When the contest commenced for the leadership of the Liberal Party, there was a belief that the winner was going to be Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition for years to come.

The assumed candidates such as Frank McKenna, John Manley, Allan Rock and Denis Coderre all dropped out because they did not want to be in opposition for years. However, this has changed as the neoconservative Harperites stumble along to bring forth polices that are out of the Canadian mainstream. Their environmental policy (what policy? you may ask), their use of a bomb when a shell would have done to deal with income trusts, their proposed changes to the judicial selection system, and their pro-Bush foreign policy have all been less than popular with the majority of Canadians.

The Liberals, in spite of their recent poor performance in government, might just come first in a 2007 election, or at least prevent the Conservatives from obtaining a majority government.

In the past, the Conservatives have self-destructed in government. Mulroney, Clark, Diefenbaker, Bennett, Meighen, Tupper and even Sir John A. all lost power because of their own mistakes.

The Liberals came back into office because of Conservative errors, not their own program. Every Liberal leader except Edward Blake has become prime minister. Thus, if history is any guide, the Liberals could well be selecting the next prime minister on Dec. 1.

In 1948, Mackenzie King attempted to persuade M.J. Coldwell, the leader of the CCF and the most eloquent orator in the House at the time, to cross the floor and become leader of the Liberals and prime minister. This was a clever move by the wiliest of our prime ministers for it would have reduced the CCF to a ‘rump’ and moved the Liberals to the left where King thought they should be. When Coldwell refused to move, King came forward with his policy that the Liberal leadership should rotate between English and French speaking members. He did this to pave the way for Louis St. Laurent. It may well be that the final ballot this time will be between Bob Rae, late of the NDP, and Stephan Dion, the only Francophone in the contest.

This has been a contest unlike many previous ones. For example, when both Robert Stanfield and Allan J. MacEachen ran for the leadership of their respective parties, they had solid support from Atlantic Canada. Scott Brison was never able to duplicate this feat. Does this show that Atlantic Liberals are not as regionally based as before, or do the new rules make it more difficult for a regional candidate to garner local support and use it as a bargaining chip at the convention as Pat Nowlan attempted to do?

It is unfortunate to see Brison falling by the wayside. One feared that this would happen and as many of us said at the time, “I wish Scott had not run.�

At the moment, it would appear that George Ignatieff has, as they say in politics, ‘peaked too soon.’ His comments on Quebec as a nation have all the potential to derail the whole convention and divide the party for some time. His support for the Iraq invasion, his remarks on Israel, and other comments may all be correct in a political science lecture, but not in a national leadership contest. To recover, he is going to have to give an outstanding speech at the convention. He is no Trudeau!

Gerard Kennedy, who failed to win the Ontario Liberal leadership, although he led on every vote except the fifth and final one, has no excess baggage to worry about. But, he cannot be seen as a logical choice because of his lack of French and national exposure. One suspects that a lot of Ontario delegates have parked their vote with him. True, he has been a good minister of education in Ontario, is knowledgeable about the west and is probably the furthest to the political left of the four major candidates. He does have a knowledge of urban issues, and the cities are where the swing votes reside.

Stephan Dion has received excellent coverage in Eddie Goldenberg’s new book The Way It Works. It is astonishing to see how quickly Dion changed from an academic to a politician. He was able to make the switch faster and with fewer problems than Ignatieff appears to have done. The Ignatieff’s Quebec as a nation proposal, which will be voted on at the convention, has hampered Dion’s campaign. He wished to use the environment as the key component of his campaign, but the Quebec as a nation issue which he opposes has eaten into his campaign. This may have been a strategic move by Ignatieff to throw Dion off balance, and if it was it has succeeded. These two candidates have the majority of Quebec delegates on the first ballot.

Bob Rae has baggage, some of which is good and some not. Given the economic conditions that were in evidence while he was premier, any individual would have had problems, but poor Bob has to ‘carry the can’ for what was a less-than-sterling administration.

Rae has yet to fully deal with his past performance as an administrator. Even if he can overcome his past record and win the leadership, can he be successful in a national election campaign? Certainly the Conservatives and the NDP will do their utmost to besmirch his image. Yet, those candidates that have dropped off prior to the convention have all gone to Rae.

Conventions are unpredictable. Who would have thought that a right wing candidate like Sinclair Stevens would support Joe Clark? Mitchell Sharp’s withdrawal on the eve of the convention paved the way for Trudeau’s victory.

In a delegate convention there is no script, but there are surprises. None of the candidates has a clean sheet and each one presents the party with some risk as leader. Given the cost of the event, will all of the delegates from the extremities make it to Montreal? Conventions are a time of renewal for a political party. What will be the future of the Liberals after this convention? Will they become the ‘government in waiting’?

In the past, the Liberals have been our natural governing party. Will they continue in this tradition, or will they, as some predicted years ago, divide on a left-right axis?

Our party system remains in a state of flux and it is possible that the Liberals will not leave Montreal as a united party.