A tough decision for Scott Brison

One of the differences between a leadership contest that concludes on the floor of the convention and a horserace is that, in the former, the “ponies� that got left well behind can still influence the outcome of the race. That, of course, and the fact that it’s often easier to clean up after a horse race.

Federal Liberals - no dummies when it comes to organizing national election campaigns that have pizzazz - appear to be pulling it off again. Their “invisible hand� has contrived the sense that (in prime time, on Dec 2, in a riveting entertainment in which most Canadians play the role of spectator “participants�) they will be yet again choosing the next Prime Minister of Canada from - you guessed it - the “national/natural governing party.� I know I’ll be watching.

It’s better than the Grey Cup game because we win or lose with our “guy� vicariously, even if we’re Reformers, Tories, New Democrats or Greens. And the drama — bad bounces, soul-crunching tackles, regional and sub-regional rivalries, glory-filled wins and heartfelt defeats, the post-game handshakes (sometimes with spit in the hands), the clever coaches, the money boys pulling strings and the spin of the colour commentators — can be compelling, diverting and exhausting. It makes getting off our butts to do some politics of our own seem superfluous and just far too ordinary.

The results of the Federal Liberal Party’s super weekend have not been equally super for everyone. One of the surprises is that despite Ken Dryden’s popularity with the general public, Liberals chose to take a pass on what he offered.

Dryden’s percentage of delegates is far lower than what he might need to have a dramatic effect on the outcome, but he may, as might Scott Brison and Michael Volpe, yet have a hand to play.

Martha Hall Finlay may too have some further force in the outcome if she joins other women candidates who earlier cast their support to Bob Rae. This has symbolic effect, and in politics symbolism is no stranger. (The failure of the Liberals to recruit and support a contending women candidate has a symbolic force of its own, and this fact will not be lost on the NDP, whoever the eventual winner is).

Dryden, Brison, Volpe and Findlay have tough decisions to make. They have, it appears, decided that the effort and money it takes to stay in the race is worth the national exposure they will receive, along with the more dramatic effect their support for the king will have if offered on the floor of the convention. But they must figure out who their king will be.

At first blush this seems simple enough: just go with the guy with whom you most like to hang out, whose platform is closest to your own, and who you believe will have the greatest opportunity of placing you on his right-hand side after the Conservative government falls.

This last calculation, however, can be difficult. Scott split the Nova Scotia vote with Michael Ignatieff. Should he support Michael, with whom he shares some policy commitments because he also did well here, thereby making up with his provincial cohorts and giving Nova Scotian Liberals a unified voice? And if Ignatieff is really the choice of the Martinites (a fact that might explain Ken Dryden’s poor showing), doesn’t Scott owe Paul and his friends one?

But, and here’s the rub, if Dion, Kennedy and Rae combine the old Chrétien forces with one of them taking a later ballot victory, wouldn’t Scott’s (by then offside) support for Ignatieff be a tad awkward? Or, given Scott’s legitimate concerns about Ignatieff’s readiness, suppose Iggy indeed wins the leadership, but runs a horrible federal election campaign, giving the Conservatives the majority for which they lust. Where exactly would that leave Scott?

Recently, Scott questioned Iggy’s preparedness for the job, and if was right then he would be right now. And make no mistake about it; he is right.

Despite his reputed intelligence, Ignatieff is going to make more verbal and judgment errors, he appears not to take direction from others well, he’s not really much of a team player and he’s into war talk when most of us are not. Tough decision, Scott!