And the winners are...?

The demos have again spoken with a reasonably clear voice. Canadians have declared, even when given the best opportunity to do so, that they were not prepared to elect a Conservatives majority, at least with Stephen Harper as leader.

Instead, they have mandated an application of his economist’s skills to the central issue of the next two years, steering the ship of state through troubled economic waters; this under the watchful, critical eyes a minority government provides.

They have declared that in a country that has enormous carbon resources, an industrial base in jeopardy and an agricultural and fishing industry reliant upon low energy prices, they do not favour a large-scale carbon tax as an environmental strategy. And they have determined the political future of Stéphane Dion.

Most of this was known before Mr. Harper decided to go to the polls. Indeed, the only real change we have purchased with the roughly $350 million we spent is to render our verdict on Mr. Dion’s leadership. And, in another irony of Canadian politics, this is to the advantage of the losing party.

The Liberals’ greatest resource in any new leadership process is the Conservatives did well enough this time to ensure that any new Liberal leader will face Steven Harper next time around.

Strategy seems to have worked

The good news for Harper is the increase in the caucus that he brings to government. This will mean a bit more power in the committee work of the House and will help get his next budget passed. His strategy of targeting particular ridings appears to have worked, a feat for which he and his advisors can take justifiable satisfaction.

The bad news for Mr. Harper is he will govern during an economic downturn, not traditionally the best conditions for subsequent political success. His desire to serve core supporters on the issues of crime and culture cost Conservatives significant possible gains in Quebec, a mistake that will likely limit their prospects there as long as he is leader. Further, although Harper has consolidated his electoral base, it is simply not true that more Canadians are turning to conservative values. And despite his efforts to the contrary, it is not clear where the talent is that will help him build a stronger Cabinet, though the addition of Greg Kerr could help him in this regard.

Strong NDP result

New Democrats produced a strong result, not only by seeing the election of new and promising candidates, but by doing so without causing a Harper majority government in the process. They focused upon their more traditional issues this time and took the fight to the Conservatives, not the Liberals.

Not only did this mean some victories against Conservatives, one in the heart of Alberta, but allowed them a few wins against the Liberals as collateral. Hats off to Jack Layton and to the strong candidates he has been able to recruit, following the footsteps of Alexa McDonough.

The Greens got lucky this time, even if they didn’t win any seats and lost the one they had. They didn’t lose much in the way of a strategic voting to stop a Conservative majority. Indeed, even if more Greens had voted strategically, this would have made a difference in only a dozen ridings; not enough to elect Stéphane Dion’s green shift. The loss of Dion to the leadership of the Liberals will, however, be a huge one for them in subsequent elections. While a less green Liberal leader might allow the Green vote to grow a bit, it will make their dream of a healed world through Canadian-led action much less likely to be realized.

M. Dion, too, accomplished some good for his party, turning it greener and recovering some of the Liberal vote in Quebec. Stéphane is a honourable, trustworthy, thoughtful and decent man, committed to some of the best of Canadian values. But he proved that his political instincts are not those of Jean Chretien, and in politics such instincts matter. Dion didn’t deserve the personal attacks he received from the Conservative war room. One can only hope the Republican strategy of division and derision has passed its shelf life (a hope that is carried by the promise of Barak Obama’s sense of the political) and we will soon be done with it as well.

If there is a lesson in all of this it is that before seeking leadership one needs to be frankly self-critical of how one might best serve one’s community.