Week two, but who's counting?

Well, here we are, folks; halfway through week two of an election campaign that Stephen Harper insisted he had to have right now, before Parliament met, when his branding iron was hot.

He remembered last year well when, after a summer of leading in the polls, the return of the House brought him down a sizable notch or two. And, as many of us seem right to have guessed, he appears to have decided he had to go before more trouble in the economy blew north.

Harper’s plan, at the cost of appearing to break yet another solemn commitment made to Canadians, appears to be working. The Conservatives continue to sit steadfastly on the precipice of majority government. But there are some interesting shifts at work this week, underneath the clear edge the Conservatives enjoy. Far from an avalanche, of course, and perhaps only journal notes to the history of this campaign, these shifts may be worth noting.

The first is the American electorate apparently turning back to Obama. Trouble in the American economy is intensifying and spreading; there has been more critical consideration of Sarah Palin's record and values; prisoner of war McCain has been given due recognition, but rebuilding is the sense he really is just another Republican.

And Obama's promise of integrity, change and cool intelligence in the Oval Office seems to be at work again. Canadians are moved by goings on in the States and our opposition parties are intent on linking Stephen Harper to Bush Doctrine Republicanism. As Republicans appear to be falling, the Republican in Harper's grasp appears less steady.

The second shift is that women in Ontario and Quebec appear to be moving away from Harper, as the policy differences between the Conservatives and the other parties are restated. This so far modest shift in support has been dispersed to the four other parties. Whether it moves back to Harper or indeed consolidates behind one Opposition party by Election Day is one of the more interesting features of current party competition.

Ex-Progressive Conservative Elizabeth May's presence in the campaign, I believe, is having effect on women voters, which is why it was such a mistake by Harper and Layton to seek to exclude her from the television debates.

Dion starting to use his team

The Liberals have finally got their plane off the ground. Even Dion seems to be getting better at campaigning and he's starting to use his team. The best line, I thought, of the last week was his, to the effect that while his English was not perfect, he spoke the truth better than Stephen Harper in both French and English. Sounded like something Jean Chretien might have said. Still, the Liberals have a long way to go to any tipping point.

That all four parties have decided this election is about Steven Harper's record will make it increasingly challenging for Conservatives who, despite their plan to make the election all about Dion, will now need to adjust to this sort of concentrated critical attention on themselves.

The ads by the NDP have been particularly effective in this regard. Even the Bloc seems to have recovered its verve and moxy, making the issue in Quebec the worry about a Harper majority running the country from Calgary.

The Conservatives have not had a good second week, after starting so strongly. That their Minister of Agriculture apparently thought the listeria deaths were a proper object of humour should prove costly to them.

Conservatives’ decision to centre their campaign on Stephen Harper, the man, runs the risk of becoming more tiresome than they might have anticipated and it draws attention to the Liberal Team, to Layton and May, and to the high quality of Bloc incumbents by contrast. Some of those who agree that Stephen Harper is a strong leader still don't warm to the guy. Having him uninvited in our living rooms daily for over a month may not be the best of ideas.

Moreover, Harper's bold claim that Canadians are becoming more "conservative" hints more at his rumoured hidden agenda to remake Canada than he had probably thought through. The fact he has agreed to make public the report on the cost of the Afghan mission will be another challenge. Ultimately, it remains Stephen Harper's majority to hold or to let slide away.