The by-election test

In advance of their yearly meeting in Quebec, the Conservatives have set three by-election contests: two in Montreal and one in urban west Ontario.

Their spin doctors—who still need more work in political science than watching reruns of West-Wing will provide—wish us to believe that unless the Liberals win two of the three ridings, they’re toast.

There is some historical basis for believing that the Opposition does better in by-elections than the government. Voting for Opposition parties in by-elections, the thinking goes, sends a message to government without defeating it. But historical precedence is not always so reliable a guide. Whatever else they may be, the three by-elections of Sept. 8 likely won’t be harbingers of any federal vote that follows.

In the next general election, the federal Liberals will be counting upon those who would prefer either NDP or Green candidates, but who fear the re-election of the Conservatives. (Even some Péquiste supporters will be so motivated, as they prefer a Liberal minority to a Conservative majority.)

Those voting in these by-elections, by contrast, can vote for the Opposition party of their choice without leading to the re-election of the government.

Accordingly, we might well see the Liberals lose the contest in Saint Lambert to the Bloc, and even the riding in Guelph to the bright and engaging Tom King of the NDP, without any predictive implication for the subsequent general election. Indeed, given this electoral logic, a Liberal Party win in Guelph may be a harbinger of much better things to come their way, as one might indeed not expect such a win.

I, for one, would be delighted to see Tom King in the House, though his winning the seat will require the support of university students, many of whom will not be able to vote Sept. 8. In yet another twist of fate, the Conservatives, by setting the date so early in the school year, may do Dion a lot of good.

Westmount seat loss could be telling

The loss of the Westmount seat, one that Liberals have held seemingly forever, may be another story. A loss by Liberal ex-astronaut and Canadian hero Marc Garneau could be seen as a revealing blow to Liberals. Even if the NDP runs a very strong candidate and campaign, which they appear to be doing, the traditional Liberal vote should be enough to prevail. Dion’s failure here might well give him trouble.

But if even the new electoral logic I have proffered holds true, voters in Westmount can vote for the NDP without causing the re-election of the Conservatives, and some may choose this time to do so. So even a Liberal loss in Westmount may not portend their collapse or a Conservative majority to follow.

Neither will these by-elections be the electoral test of the green shift strategy upon which the Liberals seem currently to be pinning their hope. Many of us have been surprised that they have come out with so bold a plank in their platform so early.

But it may well be that the green shift will not be their central campaign strategy by the time the next general election rolls around. We might see instead a more traditional campaign, where Canadians are asked simply to cast a vote in judgment of the performance of the Conservative government, with the green shift serving only as a backdrop set for NDP, Green, and soft bloc voters. Sure, the Conservatives can make the green shift the camping battleground if they choose, but I doubt they wish to stand for re-election on their record on the environment.

So while the three by-election contests will be fun to watch, they won’t likely have the predictive value that Conservatives wish. If anything, the real question may be why the Conservatives can’t win in Guelph with a strong NDP candidate taking votes from the Liberals.