Caution! Web under construction

By Agar Adamson

"O what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!

Sir Walter Scott might not have been thinking of politics when he wrote these words, but perhaps they are appropriate to Canada today as we reflect upon the outcome of the four most recent federal by-elections, the Cadman incident, the Mulroney-Schreiber affair, the most recent national polls, and the Hilary vs. Obama playoffs. And what about the U.S. economy and the Bear-Stearns situation, not to mention the U.S. federal budget deficit? Some days you just do not want to get out of bed.

Looking at the results of the four by-elections is rather like the story of the witch doctor prophesying the future by looking at animal entrails. The only party that can be happy is the Bloc and only because they were not a player this time. The NDP certainly must be distressed as they finished third in three of the contests and second by 36 votes in Toronto Centre-Rosedale ahead of the Greens.

The Liberals sound happy, but should they be? After all, they lost the Saskatchewan seat largely because their candidate was parachuted in by Stephane Dion. Also, their vote in Quadra was well down from the last election. Yes, they won two seats in Toronto, but that was a foregone conclusion. The Conservatives also cannot be pleased with themselves. The results illustrate the fact that the Conservatives are currently unpopular in the urban areas of the country and that is where the ‘swing’ votes are to be found.

The Greens may be happy. Because of the new financial arrangements they did do well and raised money for the Party, but they are a long way from winning that much-needed ‘first seat’ in the House of Commons. Voters may be parking their vote with the Greens just as they once did with the NDP.

The voter turnout was low as expected in a by-election which may have benefited the Greens as strong adherents to a party or an issue will vote come what may.

Are the results sufficient evidence for the Liberals to defeat the government? Probably not, particularly when one reflects upon the outcome in the two Western seats. The NDP must be quite concerned with their own showing, which was far from satisfactory, and thus less likely to vote for an election.

The most recent national poll is also interesting for it shows the Conservatives not only in the lead but that their lead has not been diminished by the current scandals in Ottawa. The fact that the poll has the NDP up two per cent is interesting given their dismal showing in the by-elections. Perhaps this poll is that one-in-twenty the pollsters always warn us about and indeed that it is a rogue poll.

As for the scandals, we must wait and see how they will impact upon public opinion. The Prime Minister will have to move quickly to appoint a chair for the Mulroney-Schreiber affair or risk being accused of a cover up. As for the Chuck Cadman incident, it is a sad commentary upon our political life. There is an old saying that, ‘all is fair in love war and politics.’ Unfortunately, this seems to be the case when it comes to Mr. Cadman.

The Conservatives behavior within the House Committees has led the Speaker to publicly admonish the members for their unparliamentarily behavior. The Conservatives attempt to cover-up their apparent behavior during the last election campaign is one of the reasons that the Speaker had to make his statement for all Members to improve their behavior. The Committees of the House are very important to the orderly functioning of Parliament. It is in Committees that the backbench members can come to the forefront and can and do play a meaningful roll in any Parliament. Furthermore, it is to the advantage of any Cabinet to keep the members busy in Committee, for as the old adage says, those with time on their hands cause trouble. It is rather surprising that the Conservatives have so little legislation to put before the House. Given their platform during the last election, one would not have expected them to run out of steam after barely two years in office.

The twin issues of the environment and the economy deserve leadership by this government. Given the rapid changes in the American economy one wonders how soon we will be negatively impacted by it in this country? Already the automobile industry in Ontario is in some trouble, and given the international integration of that industry one wonders how long it will be before Ontario’s ‘rust-bucket’ industries are laying-off their workers?

The natural resources of Canada, except for forestry, have to date kept us out of the American mess. Also, most of our bankers know a bad loan when they see one. Have we forgotten Pierre Trudeau’s analogy of the elephant and a mouse? When the U.S. gets a cold, we get pneumonia?

In the meantime, we watch with wonder the American presidential campaign and in particular the struggle within the Democrats. What policy initiatives will come out of this campaign? Will NAFTA be reopened? Will troops be withdrawn from Iraq and sent to Afghanistan? Will Bush’s border restrictions be loosened by the new administration? Will the issue of Obama’s pastor be put to rest after his recent speech on race?

Provincially, we expect the Legislature to be back in business by mid-April. Will the Liberals have the courage of their recently expressed convictions to defeat the Conservatives, or will they take the lead from their Ottawa cousins to oppose but not to defeat?

Yes, politics on both sides of the border are a tangled Gordian knot and there appears to be no Alexander the Great around who can slice the knot and set us on on a more attractive course. Thus, we continue to ask, are our politicians deceiving us by constructing an interesting web?