The Hilary and Bill show

It’s true, isn’t it, that Hollywood invented both the rerun and the sequel? If so, it’s fitting, as we lean desperately to the end of the worst administration in American history, that Hilary Clinton (with hubby Bubba) are seeking to replace it.

Primaries are employed by America’s two grand parties to bind delegates to candidates as they move to the conventions that elect their Presidential nominee. Folks voting in the primaries give the parties a revealing indication of how appealing and politically skilled their candidates will be with their party’s traditional voting base in the election to follow rather than leaving such judgment to party stalwarts. In a battle that lasts well over a year, the candidates’ mettle is well tested before the more grueling battle for the Presidency.

Primaries, with differing rules, are held in a variety of states over a period of time, “Super Tuesday” being the biggest event of the season, with 22 states involved. It includes the big population and delegate-rich primaries in California and New York.

As most viewers of the TV series West Wing will know, the primaries are a grueling, highly competitive battle of declared Titans. What West Wing didn’t emphasize, of course, are the millions of dollars that contenders need before even thinking of competing and the degree to which, even within a party, “winning” can involve the playing of dirty tricks.

That Hilary will be leading by “Super Tuesday” on Feb. 5 remains far from certain, despite her lead months ago.

She continues to lead in national polls. And though Barak Obama won more delegates in Nevada, she led the popular vote there as well, taking more Hispanic votes than Obama, an outcome that should help her in California.

Still, Barak is doing very well indeed in collecting primary delegates, and will likely have won the South Carolina Democratic primary by the time this column goes to press, despite the high regard in which the African-American community holds the Clintons.

In one of the many ironies of American politics, Bill Clinton, America’s once acclaimed first “black” president, is working hard to support his wife after treating her horribly while he was President. They’re running against the first African-American contender ever to stand a real chance to win the Presidency, an impressive, charismatic candidate who was thought of not long ago by some as “not black enough.”

Throw in prospects for the first American woman President and we have what is undeniably an interesting contest, leaving John Edwards - a white lawyer with southern charm and a passion for the interests of the poor emanating from the mansion in which he lives - well behind.

The politics of identity or old-fashioned values?

However, the logic of the contest might yet lie elsewhere. If, for example, John McCain were to win the Republican nomination (not as unlikely as once believed) and Clinton the Democratic nomination, the eventual Presidential election might prove to be closer than it now appears.

Not because Hilary is a woman, as we appear, thankfully, to be beyond this sort of nonsense, but because John appeals to independents, those who are loyalists for neither of the grand parties, whose votes often determine national outcomes. Interestingly, Obama appeals to independents as well if not better than McCain.

In the end, at a time of deeply troubling foreign policy and related economic weakness at home, what may come to matter most are not the demographics of difference in the age of identity politics, but six old-fashioned values: experience, piety, wealth, inspiration, justice, and valour.

That Clinton may prevail might yet be traced to the increasing desire of many Americans for experience when their ship of state is floundering so badly.

Regardless, this contest should matter to us as we seek to finesse the worst and find the best in our relations with the enormous political economy next door. We have, lamentably, under the Conservatives, become increasingly tied to and inclined to mimic American economic prospects, political practice and foreign policy. And, as they say, when sleeping with an elephant, one should always remain alert.

The political prospects for women and visual minorities are very much at the heart of the 2008 American election. We may see a remarkable moment in history.

And even those of us who bemoan what we take to be the corruption, stupidity and ineffectiveness of the current American political system can’t help but find this promising.