To fall or not to fall

The question facing our political parties in the next few weeks is seemingly a simple one: to end the life of the current Parliament in October or wait until the budget in the spring. The context is clear. The deep division between the Conservative conception of the country and those of the four contesting parties remains, even as the Conservatives work to appear more ideologically moderate. And the corresponding 35/65 per cent split in the country seems relatively steadfast, though Stéphane Dion’s weak showing in Montreal recently may alter this.

The only public policy achievable in this context is a sort of foreign policy where Stephen Harper is emulating the executive powers of the American Presidency. His “re-branding” of Canada (conservatives’ word of the decade) is currently centered on our continued combat role in Afghanistan, but it’s clearly also in play in his approach to global warming.

Conservatives are temporizing on these sorts of issues by allowing various statements of their intentions and commitments, hoping that the majority of Canadians will eventually change our minds, give up thinking about these issues, or that a federal election in which Conservatives ran close to 40 per cent would constitute sufficient grounds for them to carry that ball as they see fit.

Strategic reasoning

For Conservatives there are strategic reasons to go now, and this may be why Steven Harper is on a serious diet. They may well catch Liberals and the Bloc at their weakest, and the NDP at one of its points of strength, and they need both if they’re to win a majority.

They also would be in a better situation to seek a second term before the full effect of the American economic weakening and the full impact of the stronger Canadian dollar is felt here. They enjoy a clear advantage over the Liberals in campaign money, and they have the hunger that makes it easy to campaign.

But Conservatives also have worries. Despite Mr. Harper’s recent prediction that they would likely only form a second minority government, any movement mid-campaign toward a majority may move some New Democrats and Greens to the Liberals.

Further, if Conservatives are seen to precipitate an election while predicating the status quo, many swing voters who think that elections are too expensive may be less than impressed. And if Harper is right about a second minority, this might well provide him with only two short terms in office while the Liberals ready their next leader, while little of the tougher Conservative agenda has been achieved, and while Tory and Reform leadership knives are sharpened.

Dion can’t appear to be weak

If the Conservatives don’t offer a Speech from the Throne that he can honestly favour, Stéphane Dion will be expected to vote nay. To fail to do so would set up an argument that the Liberals don’t deserve to be even the Official Opposition, as they’re unprepared to play their institutional role.

Moreover, it’ll make Mr. Dion appear weak, and while he uses his apparent weakness as a political resource, this would be too much of a good thing. Moreover, despite what Iggy, Dion’s political albatross, is saying, the tension in the party would grow if leadership contenders believed that Stéphane was dragging his feet in testing his leadership with the Canadian public.

Still, it’s possible that an anticipated decline in the economy over the next eight months might trump this strategic reasoning, even if they had to pay a price for supporting the Conservatives.

The Bloc are compelled to go before they lose more ground and while the provincial party seems back on its feet. And the NDP actually like campaigning — almost as much as authoring the legislation of other parties — and see before them, albeit through a glass darkly, the possibility of historic gains.

They too might see that the prospects of a worsening economy would profit them in the spring, especially in industrial Ontario and working class Montreal. But like the Bloc, they can’t afford to be seen as supporting Conservatives for much longer.

The call, then, is Steven Harper’s, though we may yet have a role to play. If a public opinion poll finds Canadians do not wish a fall election, the chances of having one will be lessened considerably, as this would give Stéphane Dion the out he may need.