Climate change in Nova Scotia to bring agricultural challenges

By Kirk Starratt

kstarratt@kentvilleadvertiser.ca

NovaNewsNow.com

There are many challenges, and perhaps opportunities, for agrarians to consider as people in Nova Scotia experience climate change over the next century.

That was the message among others at “Food or Fuel?”, an event featuring four guest speakers held at the St. James Anglican Church Hall in Kentville Thursday evening, May 1, sponsored by K.A.L.E. (Keeping Agricultural Land for Evermore).

As oil supplies decrease, population pressures increase and the climate changes, people on a global basis are suffering from food shortages and rising food costs. The presentations focused on what people can do to prepare for the future and help avoid a crisis.

Pierre Cloutier, Progeny Software, Wolfville, who gave a presentation on peak oil and population pressure, said he hopes we can maintain our lifestyle of driving with a replacement of oil.

However, he pointed out that it takes oil to get rid of oil. Cloutier said he is 100 per cent in favour of alternative energy such as wind, solar and tidal, but the problem is there is no amount of affordable alternative energy that can provide as much cheap energy to which we’re accustomed as oil.

Cloutier said oil supplies aren’t going to last forever and we have to rethink our whole style of living. “We have to begin the shift now to use what we have left of our oil to build windmills and solar panels,” he said. “There’s no time left.”

No new refineries, little exploration

Cloutier said the oil companies have started to merge, there are no new refineries being built, there is little new exploration and no major oil discoveries in the last 25 years. The largest oil fields in the world are in decline and he said the Arabs have overstated their oil supplies because the more you overstate reserves, the more you can export. He said another problem is most of the oil is located in hostile places where people don’t like us.

With conventional oil, he said, it takes the energy of one barrel to pump 30. With the oilsands of Alberta, it takes one barrel of oil to get one-and-a-half barrels, which is nearly pointless. People talk about the amount of oil in Alaska, but Cloutier said this discovery would produce only a one-year supply. We are consuming about 85 million barrels of oil per day worldwide, one quarter of this in the United States.

He said one problem with solar panels is the amount of land it would take to harness enough energy to offset oil use. Hydrogen comes from natural gas, so it’s kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Another problem is hydrogen cells require platinum. We mine about 240 million grams of platinum per year, but it would take 4.2 billion grams to convert one quarter of our cars to hydrogen. To produce enough ethanol to power all cars, we would have to use 97 per cent of our arable land.

Cloutier said the price of wheat and rice is going through the roof and there are six billion other humans who aspire to the lifestyle we have, including eating meat and driving cars. “It costs money to truck food to Nova Scotia,” he said. “The more we can grow and buy locally, the more we can avoid economic upheaval.”

He urged audience members to approach their elected officials to state the importance of preserving farmland and pointed out that a railroad could be a cost effective way to transport food and people.

Cloutier said people could use root cellars to preserve food. You could buy locally grown fruit and vegetables from local farmers when they’re plentiful. The farmer would get more and you would pay less by cutting out the middleman. People used to survive all winter off food stored in their root cellar. The food won’t freeze and root cellars require no energy.

Rate of warming increase a problem

Gary Lines, chief meteorologist, Environment Canada, Atlantic Climate Change Division, who spoke about climate change in Nova Scotia, said we came out of an ice age about 10,000 years ago and have witnessed an increase in temperature of about 5-7C since that time. However, over the next hundred years, we could experience warming of 4-6.4C. He said the rate of the increase is the problem.

He said if you take the global model and look at Kentville and Greenwood, Greenwood would be 5C warmer on average by the 2080s and Kentville would be 4C warmer. He said we can expect more precipitation on average per year, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

The character of the precipitation will be heavier rain over a couple of days then nothing for a couple weeks. He said this is what the models show and we’re already experiencing it. We’re likely to experience more hot extremes and more heavy precipitation events. There will probably be more tropical storms, tracking further to the west, and we’ll likely experience more rain than snow. A decrease in snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere is expected.

Concern for soil erosion and livestock

Lines said Kentville currently has a 186-day growing season and Greenwood has a 181-day growing season, but that will likely increase by 30-50 days by 2080. “There will be less precipitation in the food basket of North America,” he said about the American Midwest. “We should prepare for that.”

He said we probably wouldn’t be as bad off in Atlantic Canada as the fellow living in the American Midwest.

Climate and soil are key elements for agriculture and with more extreme weather events, such as heavier precipitation in a shorter period of time and more drought situations, this creates concerns for soil erosion and for livestock. Farmers will have to improve drainage and erosion control, and soil management will become more important.

As we move forward with agriculture in a warmer climate, he said crop selection would be important and we could encounter different pests. We could need more pesticide and weed control. We’ll have the conditions for rapid growing, but this applies to weeds as well as crops.

Our challenge to change things

Gordon Michael of the Farmers Markets of Nova Scotia Cooperative Ltd., who spoke about identifying challenges of local food production and distribution, said we have to look at developing a local food supply and delivery system and find ways to bring more producers to market. “Young people don’t learn about food production today,” he said. “We don’t value it.”

Michael said it’s our challenge to change things. He drew attention to some key recommendations for local food production and distribution, including strategies to deal with human resource needs; a pilot project to get local food into institutions; exploring ways to grow more food, perhaps utilizing greenhouses and geo-thermal technology; and utilizing commercial kitchens to help produce value-added products for producers to sell at market using local food to create jobs.

Lil MacPherson, founder of the Wooden Monkey Restaurant in Halifax, spoke about local food choices to sustain us. She said she wanted to open a restaurant using only locally produced food. She said no one else was doing it and it’s really working.

She even incorporated environmentally friendly toilets in the establishment and hopes there is a ripple effect from her efforts. MacPherson challenges people to stop and think about their food purchases and ask if you’re hurting anyone or yourself. “We’ve really lost our food system and I want it back,” she said. “I’m banking on the farmers to grow food for us.”

To watch a half-hour video documentary from “Food or Fuel?”, including additional information from the presenters, visit www.NovaNewsNow.com.