BREAKING: New poll predicts NDP majority of at least 30 seats (Updated)

A new poll, to be released shortly, predicts an NDP majority with 30 seats or more.

The poll conducted by Nova Insights Market Research & Consulting of Kentville places the NDP well in the lead with the support of 45% of likely voters, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 25%, Liberals at 24%, and Green Party at 4%.

The initial release suggests these numbers predict "with certainty" an NDP majority.

Nova Insights calculates the NDP is on track to take 30 seats with the possibility of up to four more in ridings which are considered too close to call.

With a sample size of 408 respondents over Nova Scotia's 52 ridings (i.e. an average of fewer than 8 respondents per riding), The Spectator asked Nova Insights president Paul Desbarres to explain his company's methodology regarding the seat count projection. Desbarres says "The seat projection model I use is a complex set of calculations that uses input from the previous provincial election along with regional swings attributed to specific seat results. The inputs into the seat projection model are subject to the same sampling error as the other data.  However, the method of calculation is what I would call a “scientific art” against which a sampling error cannot be attributed."

The survey was conducted online and polled a panel of 408 adult Nova Scotians balanced to represent the general population. The poll was conducted from May 22 to May 26 and is considered accurate within 4.85 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The release also contains some indication of which issues are influencing voter preferences. Survey respondents who reported feeling "not so good" or "poor" with regards to their personal finances expressed 51% support for the NDP and only 17% support for the ruling PCs.

On the other hand, likely voters who consider "crime and violence" a "very serious problem" expressed a 31% preference for the PCs, better than the party's 25% result among all respondents.

While 35% of respondents approved of the performance of Rodney MacDonald's government, only 29% had a favourable opinion of MacDonald personally.

UPDATE I: The Nova Insights poll is only the second since the campaign began. On May 19, Corporate Research Associates Inc. predicted the NDP were on course to form a government with 37% support versus the Liberals at 31%, PCs at 28% and Greens at 3%. The CRA poll surveyed 627 adult Nova Scotians from May 7 to May 16 and was considered accurate within 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

UPDATE II: Although the Nova Insights release does not include information about undecided or unlikely voters, Desbarres reports via email that all likely voters were asked whether they were "absolutely certain" of their expressed party preference or whether their choice might change before the June 9 vote.

Overall 57% of likely voters said they were absolutely certain of their expressed preference. When broken down by party, the Nova Insight poll contains more good news for the NDP. Of respondents who selected NDP as their first choice, 66% said they were certain of their vote. Those who selected PC as their first choice were 53% certain of their preference. Those who chose Liberals as their first choice were 41% certain of their preference. Desbarres reports that the sample of Green party supporters was too small for evaluation on this question.

UPDATE III: Desbarres reports Nova Insight's regional breakdown for this poll as: HRM 45%, Industrial Cape Breton 12%, Strait 3%, Valley 14%, South Shore 12%, Northeast NS 14%

This spread is designed to mirror population distribution as per census data. *****

Nova Insights Market Research & Consulting May 27 announcement: http://novainsights.ca/index.php?pr=Poll_NS_Election_2009-05

Corporate Research Associates' May 19 announcement: http://www.cra.ca/en/home/Newsroom/NovaScotiaNDPOnCourseToFormGovernment.aspx