Andre Boisclair's domino effect?

One of the challenging features of political analysis is the degree to which phenomena are connected. Americans used to advance the domino theory that once one society fell to communist leadership others similar or proximate would follow. Accordingly the US should, it was argued, use all possible means to draw a line in the sand. This theory has been discredited by most political scientists, though a version of it appears to be at work in the catastrophe of George Bush’s invasion of Iraq.

But the thesis that politics is inherently connected remains. What happens in one jurisdiction or in one aspect of a particular jurisdiction has consequences, sometimes un-intended, elsewhere, and sometimes at considerable distance from the initial event. And to make matters even more interesting, human beings, unlike domino pieces, are intentional: we can alter what one might be tempted to see as a given sequence.

I was reminded of the connectedness of politics by comments made this week by Senator Tommy Banks -- one of Canada’s most accomplished jazz musicians -- who remains opposed to the mandatory four year fixed term for federal campaigns, in a bill that received Royal Assent last week.

Tommy’s argument was that parliamentary government is a very complex process, delicately balanced through its historical development. Changing to fixed terms, he thinks, will have implications currently unseen and likely untoward.

Banks is no dummy; he is quick to see the sub-surface relatedness of politics partly because music is also inherently interconnected.

Resignation’s impact

With this in mind, we might consider the impact of Andre Boisclair’s resignation of the leadership of the Parti Québécois. It is thought that Boisclair’s replacement will be Gilles Duceppe, once he checks out how many knives the current caucus and hardliners in the party are carrying. This could play out in a variety of ways in Quebec: for instance, as heralding the arrival of the last of the great champions of the separatist movement, before its demise; or as heralding the first autonomist premier of a significantly more empowered Quebec. But it might also have dominoes falling in all directions beyond the Québec National Assembly.

One scenario bandied about by the chattering class last week had Duceppe’s leaving the federal scene, leading to the effective collapse of the Bloc, with the Conservatives clicking their heels in joy all the way to the next federal election. Advocates of this view believe that the collapse of the Bloc would have the conservative nationalist (federal) vote in la belle province move to the Conservatives, just as it moved provincially to the ADQ when the Parti Quebecois slipped in the last Québec provincial election.

Even the election of a very conservative president of France last week might play a role here, with more conservative nationalists in Québec voting for Conservatives federally, seeing considerable similarities in the two leaders.

Conservative scenario

If the French can vote for a “common sense revolution” where the agenda was not hidden, then why wouldn’t les Québécoises vote for Reformers here, even if their agenda is still largely hidden?

In this scenario, the NDP could find the Bloc’s left leaning vote move to them. And Stéphane Dion’s hard line against the nationalist movement would leave the Liberals with only the hardcore federalist vote to capture, not nearly enough to prevent a Tory majority.

Under this scenario, we might revisit the grand conservative consensus of the Mulroney days, this time eviscerating the federal level of government with increasing transfers of taxing and spending power to the provinces.

Perhaps. But my money is still in the bank. (Well it’s not exactly money; more like the room left on my cards.)

In a competing scenario, even with a weaker leader, the Bloc would take a decent share of the nationalist vote in Quebec, and Duceppe’s leadership in Québec City would bring the two arms of the party closer together, to re-enforce one another. The Quebec NDP and Green vote would, at the prospect of a Conservative majority, move to Dion and the Bloc. And further apparent pandering to Québec by the Conservatives would cost them elsewhere in the country.

It may well be that Duceppe will again decide that he prefers Ottawa to Québec City, leaving us with minority government as far as the eye can see. But that Canadian political phenomena are complexly related seems undeniable, even if we aren’t dominos.