Canada, Cuba and casting ‘09 predictions

No one disputes the big story - and problem - facing North America is the current recession. Only a fool would comment on the matter - particularly with predictions.

But there are lots of other things worthy of comment – even prediction, in some cases.

The one question is whether there will be yet another federal election in the new year. Of course, it all depends upon Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget January 27. And, if it contains measures righteous enough to get - and retain - new Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and his increasingly centrist crowd on side.

As pundits have said already, if the budget is good enough, the Liberals can avoid an election, grab all the credit for the good points and leave the governing Tories with the continuing taint of the recession legend. It looks as though the Liberals could just want to sit back and watch Harper get tagged with the same legend as Herbert Hoover and R.B. Bennett. Harper haters who are Liberals and their supporters in the media and academe will see to it that gets lasting currency far and wide. That will be regardless of how the recession plays out, and how well the Tories perform in its eradication – or not.

As for a provincial vote, this is likely the final opportunity for NDP leader Darrell Dexter to get to the premier’s office. The popular leader’s shelflife could well be in its last months, with the Liberals’ Stephen McNeil’s value increasing as time progresses.

On the world scene, the United States’ president-elect is getting ready. Even if he doesn’t accomplish anything spectacular for some time, Barack Obama’s ascendency will be a major boost to morale. We can only wait and watch.

Meanwhile, Canada’s old friend, Cuba, is celebrating the 50th anniversary of its revolution against a corrupt dictatorship. Prime Minister John Diefenbaker’s Tories were the first Canadian government to foster good relations with Fidel Castro and his country. While the Americans became more and more belligerent – with a botched invasion by proxy and an ongoing attack on Cuban property - the Canadian government and big business retained positive relations with Cuba. Though retaining other friends that many may have seen as unseemly over the years, and dealing with political opposition in a more than acceptable robust manner, the revolution has brought a relatively high level of universal education and medical care to all Cubans.

Canadians have been front and centre in Cuban trade, Kings County agriculture producers among them, but the continuing embargo by the Americans remains a major problem for the island nation’s economy.

Fidel’s brother, Raul, who many Cubans see as a much better businessman than his older brother, is president; there is hope things can now progress. That, of course, depends upon how the Americans react. Will they halt the pointless embargo? And will renewed relations involve former business owners arriving, lawyers in tow, to reclaim properties to which they may still feel entitled?