Environment Canada's latest update on tropical storm Gabrielle says it is currently drifting northwest of Bermuda and will interact with a frontal system to bring heavy rain to parts of the Maritimes and Newfoundland, Friday into Saturday.
Organizers for the air show scheduled to take place this weekend in Yarmouth say they plan on implementing the show and all flight performances up until the moment that they are unable to do so.
The tropical system is expected to accelerate northward on Thursday then begin a complex interaction with a cold frontal trough approaching from New England. This frontal system - completely separate from Gabrielle - will likely give heavy rainfall to parts of New Brunswick over the next 48 hours or so.
As Gabrielle moves northward later on Thursday, its tropical moisture is expected to be drawn toward this frontal system in the form of a second swath of heavy rain over Nova Scotia, PEI and Western Newfoundland, beginning as early as Friday morning.
While computer guidance is unanimous on showing this interaction, there is still considerable range among the models regarding the location, timing and intensity of it. That said, it is likely that rainfall warnings will be required for some of these forementioned areas once the scenario becomes more clear.
Tropical storm Gabrielle is not expected to undergo any significant intensification over the next 48 hours. In fact the main circulation of the low itself could become separated from the deep 'convective' cloud that is required to fully sustain it.
Rainfall warnings, if required, could be issued with the 5 a.m. forecasts on Thursday once the scenario becomes more clear.
Given the expected strength of Gabrielle and current tidal cycle over the region, significant storm surge is not expected. Gale force winds will likely develop ahead of Gabrielle over Southern maritime waters early on Friday, then spread to eastern and waters during the day and to Newfoundland waters on Saturday. The strongest winds will likely occur just east of the remaining circulation of Gabrielle, when it crosses maritime and Newfoundland waters later on Friday and early Saturday morning. Wave model guidance currently shows significant wave heights up to 6 meters are possible when Gabrielle enters Canadian waters on Friday.
For updates on Gabrielle, click here.