Track forecast from National Hurricane Centre
Forecasters are saying it's much too early to quote how much rain and wind the region will experience with the passage of tropical storm Gabrielle. At 3 p.m. on Tuesday the system was 150 kilometres south of Bermuda, with an impact on the Maritime provinces expected on Friday and Saturday.
Environment Canada posted that the storm is expected to remain in a moderate 'wind shear' environment which may limit the degree of intensification.
Sometimes 'sheared' storms can dissipate quickly or even intensify rapidly - there is low scientific skill in predicting intensity change in systems like this. Most computer models keep it going as a 45-50-knots tropical storm for several days and track it or the remnants toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this week.
Models are unanimous in their prediction of a cold front moving into the Maritime provinces on Friday morning. The merging of fronts with tropical moisture or tropical storms, in general, is often a recipe for heavy rainfall so residents are urged to keep this in mind.
Given the current expectation of a track just east of Cape Breton, heavy rain could be an issue over Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Newfoundland is currently expected to be on the 'warmer' and 'windier' side of the track, but this predicted picture could easily shift.
Thursday morning, forecasters will have an idea as to what to expect in terms of wind. At this point it appears that Newfoundland would have a higher chance of windy conditions.
With regard to rainfall, fronts merging with tropical moisture/storms can lead to flooding rainfalls. This must be kept in mind especially for areas west of the track (which at this time includes Nova Scotia, PEI and Western Newfoundland).
It is too early to estimate surf magnitude. Check weather reports Wednesday or Thursday morning.
If the storm persists and develops further, highest waves and winds would be over southeastern Maritime and most Newfoundland waters. It is too early to predict details.
Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane for the latest hurricane track information map.