Harper's hokey-pokey

You put your left foot out, you bring your left foot in; you put your right foot out, and shake it all about.

After months of waiting, our guy Steve has reshuffled his cabinet and put one of his potential challengers, Peter MacKay, up to his proverbial in potential trouble. Of the Cabinet changes, three are most significant: Peter to Defence; Maxime Bernier to External Affairs; and Diane Ablonzy to the Cabinet table, albeit as a Secretary of State, in a minor role.

Moving Peter to Defence will either be his political salvation or, if the war goes south or if the government tries to string out the military effort beyond 2009, a political landmine. Peter will find the focus of Defence and the proximity of Defence interests to the Atlantic region a basis for keeping him home campaigning, where he will need to be.

He may be able to pull off the role as defender of Afghani women, though his dogged comments in the House a while back have left many women less than impressed. Placing our strongest MP in the Tory caucus to Defence reveals more of Steve’s outdated conception of our region, and it makes a move to the leadership of the party for Peter, once Steve has done enough, more difficult.

But it will please folks, one might expect, at the various bases in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, where Peter will be a welcome guest.

Bernier to External, of course, is part of the effort to keep and extend the Conservative’s modest grip on Quebec. However, most Quebecers see their role internationally as part of their Provincial autonomy, and the Bloc will be able to construe Bernier’s appointment as a move away from the “nation of Quebec” allowed by the Prime Minister.

Bernier will be able to work with the Americans and the Europeans reasonably well, as he shares the business agenda of our Republican friends to the south and a language capacity with Europeans. He has proven himself one of the real surprises of the Conservative government.

The appointment of Ablonzy to the Cabinet table is the first indication, after MacKay’s initial appointment to External and Jim Flaherty’s appointment to Finance, that the P.M. is starting to trust some of his caucus.

I watched Ablonzy during her stint as a shadow cabinet member opponent to Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin and was impressed. The downside of her appointment is that we now have an over-representation of Cabinet Ministers from southern Alberta and under-representation from Edmonton north, a fact that might turn one seat back to the Liberals. This disparity is despite the fact the Edmonton area boasts some strong Cabinet potential.

Still, not a bad effort

All in all, this was much ado about not much at all. Dropping O’Connor from Defence to Revenue Canada mimics some of the loyalty that George W. showed the weaker members of his political crew. Leaving Jimmy Flaherty in Finance probably makes sense, though it may be a further signal that, other than a few more compensatory trinkets, we in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland/Labrador won’t see any real recovery of the Atlantic Accord (though I’ve been wrong before and my fingers are still crossed, as are those undoubtedly of the Premier). And those holding energy trusts will have to wait for a Liberal administration.

The Cabinet shuffle was not a bad performance, and though it will not do much to enhance the Tories’ electoral prospects, it shouldn’t hurt them either. It has come after a successful set of caucus meetings for the Conservatives and against a backdrop of some interesting polling numbers from SES, my preferred firm.

SES has found recently that the Conservatives are back to 36 per cent, with the Liberals at 33 per cent, the Block fully recovered to where they were before Gilles’ two-day run for the leadership of Parti Québécois, and the NDP slipping to 13 per cent, with a decline primarily in Ontario. One of the more interesting results was an increase in the positive view of Stéphane Dion’s leadership among Ontario voters.

If these numbers are in the ballpark, where SES numbers usually are, this will mean that we will likely have a provincial election before the next federal one, that we’ll see a lot more here in God’s country, of both Peter Mackay and Stéphane Dion, and that the show in Ottawa will again be one to watch.